Arlington Million

I awoke to a down pour here in Metro Detroit, hopefully the rain has moved through the Chicago area and this race will remain on the turf.

#1 Einstein: Has hit the board ten out of the last eleven, the one time he missed was last years Million, when he stumbled badly at the start. Had a terrible trip last time out, looked like my rush hour drive home. Inside post doesn't bother me, I think Julien will have him pressing the pace nicely.

#2 Presious Passion: Will be on the lead early that's a fact. Jumped out to a huge lead in the United Nations and held on for the victory. Don't think he will have the ability to run away in this one, also coming off his lifetime best Beyer last out. May consider for a piece.

#3 Just As Well: Likes to stalk the pace and make a move around the turn. Won the Arlington Handicap for his first graded victory in July. Figures are a little light, in a little over his head I think. May put on the bottom of the tri tickets.

#4 Stotsfold: First Euro import that we have to handicap. I automatically throw out Euro's in there first North American dirt effort, however the same does not apply to the turf or synthetics. One stat that jumps out at me is that Stotsfold comes in the money about 45% of the time on the turf, the lowest percentage in the field today. Does have the first time Lasix angle going, however seems to dislike the left handed turn though.

#5 Mr. Sidney: Has won five of seven turf starts. Kent will have him pressing the pace. Seems to like the softer turf courses, something to consider with today's weather. Kind of a tweener in my opinion. If the turf is firm, not sure if he can cash any tickets, if the turf is soft may take the big check.

#6 Gio Ponti: The morning line favorite will let the race play out in front of him and try to strike down the stretch. Horse looks like he is coming into his own the last three races. Possible for the win and a definite play on all the tickets.

#7 Gloria de Campeao: Horse has competed mostly in the UAE and Brazil, never facing competition this tough. I will pass.

#8 Cima de Triomphe: Alot like Gloria de Campeao, never faced horses this class, Sea The Stars, excluded. Also never turned left. Look elsewhere.

#9 Recapturetheglory: Could have bought this colt less than a month ago for $62,500, I'll pass.

Here's the play firm turf: #1,#6 exacta box, #1,#6 #2,#3 tri box.

Throw in the #5 if the going is soft in the boxes.

Thanks Dolphus!

I wondered after the Preakness if running Rachel Alexandra had cost the fans a chance at a Triple Crown. Mine That Bird had validated his win in Lexington on the first Saturday in May with a runner up performance to Rachel in the Preakness. Had Rachel skipped the Preakness, Mine That Bird would have won the second jewel of the crown and been one victory away from eternal fame. It's a big assumption I know, but the opportunity would have been there.

After watching Rachel Alexandra win the Haskill over the weekend I am now convinced Rachel cost the fans a Triple Crown, Hers! Alright I know the filly had no say in the matter so lets blame Dolphus Morrison. Had Dolphus decided to run Rachel in the Derby, I don't know if this was even considered, she probably would have won. She won the Preakness and handled Summer Bird, the Belmont champ, fairly easily in the Haskill.

Alex Waldrop over at the NTRA and the board of director's at the Breeders Cup probably want to put a bounty on the head of old Dolphus. I imagine a few race track execs would chip in too. I can't even begin to estimate how much a Triple Crown winner, especially a filly, would have generated for the sport. Not only financially, but thoroughbred racing would have been in the national eye again.

So the sport is left to struggle along with just passing interest in Rachel from the people not really into the game and the rest of us wonder how much the take out is going to increase next year. Thoroughbred racing may not even survive in Michigan next year, but Dolphus doesn't have anything to do with that, or does he?